The College Football Playoff is coming to a close, who will be the final four?

Caleb Stallo

Nov 14, 2023

Here’s my prediction for the College Football Playoff, because I’ve seen enough football through 11 weeks to know who will probably get in. Usually, though not always, the winning team from four of the Power Five conferences makes it. In the CFP era, only three times have two teams from the same conference made it in—last year and the year before being the most recent. I don’t think that will be the case this year. The two historically strong conferences have been the Big Ten and the SEC. This year, I predict Georgia from the SEC, Ohio State from the Big Ten, Florida State from the ACC, and Washington from the Pac-12. They would be seeded in that order, from No. 1 to No. 4.

With the way things are likely to play out, Georgia will continue to dominate the SEC and win a competitive game against Alabama. Georgia is still strong, though they’ve declined slightly since their back-to-back national championships over the past two years. Their offense is electric, and their defense is, as always, excellent. I have no doubt they’ll win the SEC and take the No. 1 seed.

The Big Ten is a complicated situation, and it could go either way between Michigan and Ohio State. After the Michigan cheating scandal, though, I think Ohio State will prevail. The teams won’t meet in the Big Ten championship, but they will play each other before that, and I believe Ohio State will come out on top. With all the drama, including Coach Jim Harbaugh potentially missing games, karma may strike, and Michigan won’t make the playoffs. The Buckeyes and Coach Ryan Day will claim the No. 2 seed.

In the ACC, the Florida State Seminoles are the top team, and they’re undefeated. That’s their résumé, and it will likely earn them the nod over any one-loss Big 12 team. Texas, for example, could theoretically beat Florida State, but that game won’t happen. The Seminoles haven’t made the CFP since 2015, so this would be a big return. Florida State should finish strong and grab the No. 3 seed.

Now, the fourth seed is a bit of a toss-up because it’s controversial. From the Pac-12, we have Washington, which is undefeated, and Oregon, which has one loss—to Washington. You might think that makes it obvious, but if Washington loses to Oregon State this week and then loses to Oregon in the Pac-12 championship, Oregon will probably get in. I don’t think Washington will lose to both Oregon State and Oregon. They played a close game the first time, but I think Washington will return to the CFP, as they did in 2017, as the No. 4 seed.

That sets up the semifinals: Georgia vs. Washington and Ohio State vs. Florida State. I don’t think Washington can match Georgia’s intensity, so they’ll lose to the Bulldogs, while Ohio State edges out Florida State in a close one. Both matchups should be excellent, but there’s always a better team in the end. And then there’s the best team. I think Ohio State wins the national championship. Another Georgia title? Not for me—I think their time is up. They’re not quite at the level of recent years. Don’t get me wrong; the championship game will be amazing, just not in the Bulldogs’ favor. Ohio State wins in a shootout, bringing another title back to Ohio, just like they did in 2015.